To better understand the potential range of epidemic outcomes in the state of Georgia, we developed a model incorporating regionally specific conditions and calibrated to reported cases and deaths.
We explore three social distancing scenarios ranging from increased social distancing to a complete return to normal.
The model uses social distancing data and also captures hard-to-measure human behaviors such as mask wearing.
May 7, 2020
CEID Director John Drake discusses how COVID-19 modeling informs public policy and mitigation efforts on Debriefing the Briefing with CBS News Washington Correspondent Major Garrett.
Listen the podcast here.
Why One Expert Is Still Making COVID-19 Models, Despite The Uncertainty
by John M. Drake
APR. 17, 2020
Read the full article on FiveThirtyEight.com.
The Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID) and the College of Public Health (CPH) at UGA have created a new interactive tracker that allows users to track the spread of COVID-19 both in the US and worldwide. The tracker allows users to explore cases, hospitalizations, deaths and number of tests for every US state, as well as cases and deaths worldwide. Users can adjust the plots by choosing total or daily numbers, absolute or normalized values, and calendar date versus date since a certain number of cases occurred. The data comes from the Covid Tracking Project and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering.
Dr. John Drake urges swift, decisive action to curb spread of COVID-19.
In an op-ed in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, CEID Director Dr. John Drake has called for immediate and decisive intervention to slow the spread of COVID-19. Based on a study of government intervention in China following the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, CEID researchers found a very strong correlation (90%) between how early a major intervention was imposed in a province and the ultimate severity of the outbreak there. The results show that early action yields critical gains, with every delay of 3.8 days leading to a tenfold increase in cases.
Opinion: Now’s the time to act on coronavirus. Guest column. Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 13, 2020
June 2, 2020
CEID’s updated stochastic model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Georgia now accounts for human actions that are difficult to quantify with data (e.g., wearing of face masks), in addition to human movement quantified through cell phone data and other sources. The new model fits reported cases, deaths, movement data, and a temporal trend in baseline transmission capturing other human behaviors. The model projects cases, hospitalizations and deaths six weeks out under three social distancing scenarios. http://covid19.uga.edu/stochastic-GA.
March 27, 2020
The Nowcast of the COVID-19 outbreak size by US state has launched on the COVID-19 Portal. The Nowcast is an estimate of the total number of unreported cases by state. Nowcasts are estimated for the 50 states and for the US as a whole, and are calculated from COVID-19 case reports and fatalities. http://covid19.uga.edu/nowcast
March 15, 2020
The COVID-19 Portal now includes a stochastic model for the COVID-19 outbreak in the state of Georgia. http://covid19.uga.edu/stochastic-GA.
March 15, 2020
CEID has released an anlysis of the effect of early intervention on its COVID-19 Portal. The analysis of intervention timing and outbreak size by province in China clearly demonstrates the importance of early intervention.
March 3, 2020
The CEID COVID-19 Portal now includes a model that provides insight into the final size of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The model estimates global outbreak sizes by probabilistically incorporating the sparking of new local outbreaks across the globe. The model estimates outbreak sizes for best-case, worst-case and average-case scenarios under a range of assumptions, including how fast local containment efforts improve.
The Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID) is a research unit housed in the Odum School of Ecology at the University of Georgia. The mission of the CEID is to bring together social and natural scientists through data science, basic biology, and scientific synthesis.