COVID‑19 forecasts for the US by State

Please note, CEID ceased updating its forecasts based on the model presented here on July 12, 2021. This model does not account for the effects of vaccination, and as such has been discontinued. Forecasts here will soon be replaced with forecasts from CEID’s new semi-parametric, state-space compartmental model with vaccination and mobility.


To explore forecasts for every state in detail, go to the State Forecasts tab.

State Forecasts


  1. Increasing social distancing. Increasing social distancing reduces human movements from the current level to 30% of normal, which is the reduction observed in New York City that enabled transmission to decline there.
  2. Maintain social distancing (status quo). Maintaining social distancing at the level last observed in mobility data (varies by state).
  3. Return to normal. Ending social distancing increases human movements from the current level to 100% of normal.



Supplemental Information

Detailed model information:
J.M. Drake, A. Handel, A.T. Tredennick. A stochastic model for the state-level transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA (html)

GitHub repositories:

GitHub repository This repository contains code for running the model and generating some overview plots.

GitHub repository This repository contains code used to generate the visualization dashboard on the “Scenarios & Forecasts” tab.